基于SEIR-SEI模型预测广东省输入性基孔肯雅热再传播风险

doi:10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2026.07.22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的评估广东省输入基孔肯雅热（CHIKF）病例后不同干预措施的效果，为疫情防控提供量化的决策支持。方法以广东省输入性疫情及蚊媒监测数据为基础，构建人蚊耦合SEIR-SEI传播动力学模型，通过调控环境容纳系数（ $k$ ）、平均叮咬次数（ $θ$ ）及发病确诊间隔（ $1 / γ p$ ），模拟无干预、单一干预（灭蚊/防蚊/病例隔离）及综合干预3种情景下的本地传播风险与防控阈值。结果 2008~2019年广东省共报告65例输入性病例。模拟结果显示，单一干预措施防控效果有限，需将 $k$ 降至≤0.001或 $θ$ 降至≤0.1次才能阻断疫情再传播，缩短发病确诊间隔 $1 / γ p$ 可显著降低发病高峰并缩短流行周期。综合干预效果显著优于单一干预，阻断传播的临界阈值随参数组合变化，当 $k$ ≤0.5时，需满足 $θ$ ≤0.4次且 $1 / γ p$ ≤3 d，或采取更为严格的替代组合。结论广东省输入性疫情需通过综合干预阻断本地传播，建议将 $k$ 控制在0.5以下， $θ$ 控制在0.4次以下， $1 / γ p$ 在3 d内较好，相关阈值可为同类疫情防控提供参考。

关键词: 输入性基孔肯雅热, SEIR-SEI模型, 再传播风险, 预测

Abstract:

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention measures against transmission of imported Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) in Guangdong Province to provide quantitative decision-making support for epidemic prevention and control. Methods Based on the imported epidemic and mosquito vector monitoring data in Guangdong Province, a human-mosquito coupling SEIR-SEI transmission dynamics model was constructed. By adjusting the environmental carrying coefficient (k), the average number of bites (θ) and the interval between onset and diagnosis ( $1 / γ p$ ), the local transmission risk and prevention and control threshold were simulated in scenarios of no intervention, single intervention (mosquito control/anti-mosquito/case isolation) and comprehensive intervention. Results A total of 65 imported cases were reported in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019. The simulation results showed limited prevention and control effect of a single intervention measure, and reducing k to below 0.001 or θ to below 0.1 was essential to block re-transmission of the epidemic; shortening $1 / γ p$ could significantly reduce the incidence peak and shorten the epidemic cycle. The effect of comprehensive intervention was significantly better than that of single intervention. The critical threshold of blocking transimission varied with the combination of parameters. For a k value no greater than 0.5, θ needed to be controlled below 0.4 and $1 / γ p$ below 3 days, or a more stringent alternative combination should be adopted. Conclusion Comprehensive intervention measures should be implemented to contain imported CHIKF epidemics in Guangdong Province. It is recommended that k be controlled below 0.5, θ below 0.4, and $1 / γ p$ within 3 days, and these thresholds can provide reference for prevention and control of similar epidemics.

Key words: imported Chikungunya fever, SEIR-SEI model, risk of re-transmission, prediction

徐利珊, 李柯柯, 于米铼, 植秋怡, 安胜利. 基于SEIR-SEI模型预测广东省输入性基孔肯雅热再传播风险[J]. 南方医科大学学报, 2026, 46(7): 1696-1702.

Lishan XU, Keke LI, Milai YU, Qiuyi ZHI, Shengli AN. Re-transmission risk prediction of imported Chikungunya fever in Guangdong Province using the SEIR-SEI model[J]. Journal of Southern Medical University, 2026, 46(7): 1696-1702.

图/表 6

图1 CHIKF传播路径与仓室关系

Fig.1 Propagation path and compartment relationship of Chikungunya fever (CHIKF).

表1 SEIR-SEI模型参数说明及取值

Tab.1 Parameter description and value of SEIR-SEI model

Parameters	Description	Range of values	Value	Source
$η p$	Natural human birth rate (per day)	-	0.00889/365	^[18]
$μ p$	Natural human mortality rate (per day)	-	0.00520/365	^[18]
$η m$	Female mosquito oviposition rate (per day)		0.1	^[12]
$μ m$	Female mosquito mortality (per day)	1/52-1/9	1/30	^{[19, 20]}
$θ$	Average number of bites (times as a unit)	0-2	2	^[21]
$β m p$	The infection rate of infected mosquitoes to susceptible individuals caused by each bite	0.5-0.8	0.80	^[12]
$β p m$	The infection rate of infected individuals to susceptible mosquitoes caused by each bite	-	0.37	^[12]
$ω p$	Rate of conversion of latent patients to infected persons (per day)	1/12-1	1/7	^[1]
$ω m$	Rate of conversion of latent mosquitoes into infected mosquitoes (per day)	0.1-0.5	1/6	^[22]
$1 / γ p$	Interval between onset and diagnosis (in days)	1-7	7	^[1]
$k$	environmental carrying coefficient	0-2	2	^[16]

表1 SEIR-SEI模型参数说明及取值

Tab.1 Parameter description and value of SEIR-SEI model

Parameters	Description	Range of values	Value	Source
$η p$	Natural human birth rate (per day)	-	0.00889/365	^[18]
$μ p$	Natural human mortality rate (per day)	-	0.00520/365	^[18]
$η m$	Female mosquito oviposition rate (per day)		0.1	^[12]
$μ m$	Female mosquito mortality (per day)	1/52-1/9	1/30	^{[19, 20]}
$θ$	Average number of bites (times as a unit)	0-2	2	^[21]
$β m p$	The infection rate of infected mosquitoes to susceptible individuals caused by each bite	0.5-0.8	0.80	^[12]
$β p m$	The infection rate of infected individuals to susceptible mosquitoes caused by each bite	-	0.37	^[12]
$ω p$	Rate of conversion of latent patients to infected persons (per day)	1/12-1	1/7	^[1]
$ω m$	Rate of conversion of latent mosquitoes into infected mosquitoes (per day)	0.1-0.5	1/6	^[22]
$1 / γ p$	Interval between onset and diagnosis (in days)	1-7	7	^[1]
$k$	environmental carrying coefficient	0-2	2	^[16]

表2 2008~2019年广东省输入性CHIKF概况

Tab.2 Summary of imported CHIKF in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019

Year	Total	Source country		Discovery approach			Disposal place
Year	Total	Asia	Africa	Fever screening	Accompanying inspection	Visiting hospital	Within province	Outside province	Unknown
2008^{[3, 23, 24]}	5	5	0	3	2	-	4	1	-
2009^[25]	1	1	0	1	-	-	1	-	-
2010&2011^[5]a	5	2	3	5	-	-	-	-	5
2012^[26]	1	1	0	-	-	1	1	-	-
2013^{[27, 28]}	2	2	0	2	-	-	-	-	2
2014^[29]	1	1	0	1	-	-	-	-	1
2015^[30]	1	1	0	1	-	-	1	-
2016^[31]	1	1	0	1	-	-	-	-	1
2017^{[32, 33]}	12	12	0	11	-	1	12	-	-
2018^[33-35]	9	6	3	9	-	-	5	1	3
2019^{[33, 36-39]}	27	26	1	27	-	-	17	8	2
Total	65	58	7	61	2	2	41	10	14

图2 无干预情景下CHIKF疫情走势图

Fig.2 CHIKF epidemic trend without intervention. The x-axis is the elapsed time in days since the first imported case was introduced into the community.

图3 单一干预及综合干预情景下CHIKF疫情走势图

Fig.3 CHIKF epidemic trend under single intervention and comprehensive intervention scenarios. The x-axis is the elapsed time in days since the first imported case was introduced into the community. A is only control the environment capacity coefficient k; B is only control the average number of bites (θ); C is only control the time from symptom onset to diagnosis 1/γp . D, E and F are the effects of comprehensive intervention when k is 1, 0.5 and 0.1, respectively.

图4 佛山市S区L镇T社区不同干预情景下CHIKF疫情走势图

Fig.4 CHIKF epidemic trend in Community T of L Town (S District of Foshan) under different intervention scenarios. For A and B, the x‑axis is the elapsed time since the first imported case was introduced into the community. For C, the x‑axis is the elapsed time since intervention began on July 9 (local transmission already ongoing). A: Without intervention. B: Implementation of the comprehensive intervention proposed in this study upon the occurrence of the first case. C: Simulation of actual intervention measures initiated on July 9.

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