南方医科大学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 669-683.doi: 10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2025.04.01

• •    

急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死经皮冠状动脉介入术后左心室不良重构的新型风险预测模型:基于心脏磁共振的多中心前瞻性研究

马振岩1(), 阿鑫2, 赵蕾3, 张洪博3, 刘科1, 赵依晴1, 钱赓4()   

  1. 1.中国人民解放军医学院,北京 100039
    2.中国人民解放军总医院第二医学中心保健七科,北京 100039
    3.首都医科大学附属北京安贞医院放射科,北京 100029
    4.中国人民解放军总医院第六医学中心心血管病医学部,北京 100048
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-09 出版日期:2025-04-20 发布日期:2025-04-28
  • 通讯作者: 钱赓 E-mail:mzy20130309@163.com;qiangeng9396@263.net
  • 作者简介:马振岩,在读硕士研究生,E-mail: mzy20130309@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中华心血管病发展专项基金心脏健康科研基金项目(Z-2019-42-1908-2);首都卫生发展科研专项项目(SF2020-2-5012)

A cardiac magnetic resonance-based risk prediction model for left ventricular adverse remodeling following percutaneous coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: a multi-center prospective study

Zhenyan MA1(), Xin A2, Lei ZHAO3, Hongbo ZHANG3, Ke LIU1, Yiqing ZHAO1, Geng QIAN4()   

  1. 1.Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing 100039, China
    2.Seventh Department of Health Care, Second Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100039, China
    3.Department of Radiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing 100029, China
    4.Senior Department of Cardiology Disease Medicine, Sixth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100048, China
  • Received:2025-01-09 Online:2025-04-20 Published:2025-04-28
  • Contact: Geng QIAN E-mail:mzy20130309@163.com;qiangeng9396@263.net

摘要:

目的 基于急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死(STEMI)患者的心脏磁共振(CMR)参数构建左心室不良重构(LVAR)风险预测模型。 方法 前瞻性纳入2018年1月~2021年12月在8个医学中心接受直接经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)的急性STEMI患者329例。分别于PCI术后7±2 d及术后6个月进行CMR检查。采用CVI42软件分析CMR参数。LVAR定义为PCI术后6月左心室舒张末期容积较基线(术后7±2 d)增加超过20%,或左心室收缩末期容积较基线增加超过15%。所有患者按照7∶3的比例随机分为训练集(n=230)和验证集(n=99)。在训练集中,首先通过LASSO回归筛选出潜在的预测因子,然后进行单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析,以识别具有独立预测价值的变量,并构建列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线、曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析,评估列线图在训练集和验证集中的区分度、校准度和临床应用价值。 结果 根据LVAR的定义,患者分为LVAR组(n=100,30.40%)和无重构组(n=229,69.60%)。LVAR组心血管主要不良事件发生率明显高于无重构组(58.00% vs 16.16%,P<0.001)。单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析发现,左心室整体纵向应变(LVGLS)[OR=0.76,95% CI (0.61-0.95),P=0.015]、左心房主动应变(LAAS)[OR=0.78,95% CI (0.67-0.92),P=0.003]是LVAR的保护因素。而梗死面积(IS)[OR=1.05,95% CI(1.01-1.10),P=0.017]、微血管阻塞(MVO)[OR=1.26,95% CI(1.01-1.59),P=0.048]是LVAR的危险因素。列线图在训练集中的AUC值为 0.90 (95% CI:0.86-0.94),在验证集中AUC值为 0.88 (95% CI:0.81-0.94)。 结论 本研究基于急性STEMI患者的CMR参数,识别出4个LVAR的独立预测因子:LVGLS、LAAS、IS、MVO。基于这4个变量构建的列线图预测性能良好,可为急性STEMI患者的临床管理和早期干预提供重要依据。

关键词: 左心室不良重构, 急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死, 心脏磁共振, 列线图

Abstract:

Objective To develop a risk prediction model for left ventricular adverse remodeling (LVAR) based on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) parameters in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods A total of 329 acute STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI at 8 medical centers from January, 2018 to December, 2021 were prospectively enrolled. The parameters of CMR, performed at 7±2 days and 6 months post-PCI, were analyzed using CVI42 software. LVAR was defined as an increase >20% in left ventricular end-diastolic volume or >15% in left ventricular end-systolic volume at 6 months compared to baseline. The patients were randomized into training (n=230) and validation (n=99) sets in a 7∶3 ratio. In the training set, potential predictors were selected using LASSO regression, followed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression to construct a nomogram. Model performance was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Results LVAR occurred in 100 patients (30.40%), who had a higher incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events than those without LVAR (58.00% vs 16.16%, P<0.001). Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS; OR=0.76, 95% CI: 0.61-0.95, P=0.015) and left atrial active strain (LAAS; OR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.67-0.92, P=0.003) were protective factors for LVAR, while infarct size (IS; OR=1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10, P=0.017) and microvascular obstruction (MVO; OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59, P=0.048) were risk factors for LVAR. The nomogram had an AUC of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86-0.94) in the training set and an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.94) in the validation set. Conclusion LVGLS, LAAS, IS, and MVO are independent predictors of LVAR in STEMI patients following PCI. The constructed nomogram has a strong predictive ability to provide assistance for management and early intervention of LVAR.

Key words: left ventricular adverse remodeling, acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction, cardiac magnetic resonance, nomogram