南方医科大学学报

南方医科大学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (7): 1554-1562.doi: 10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2025.07.23

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1990~2035年东亚地区唇与口腔癌的疾病负担分析及未来预测

刘倚彤1(), 赵克2,3(), 王晓东2,3()   

  1. 1.暨南大学口腔医学院，广东 广州 510632
    2.中山大学附属口腔医院，广东 广州 510055
    3.广东省口腔医学重点实验室，广东 广州 510055
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-03 出版日期:2025-07-20 发布日期:2025-07-17
  • 通讯作者: 赵克,王晓东 E-mail:liuyitong@stu2021.jnu.edu.cn;zhaoke@mail.sysu.edu.cn;wangxd33@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘倚彤，在读本科生，E-mail: liuyitong@stu2021.jnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2410104)

Lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2035: trends of disease burden and future projections

Yitong LIU1(), Ke ZHAO2,3(), Xiaodong WANG2,3()   

  1. 1.School of Stomatology Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
    2.Hospital of Stomatology, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510055, China
    3.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Stomatology, Guangzhou 510055, China
  • Received:2025-04-03 Online:2025-07-20 Published:2025-07-17
  • Contact: Ke ZHAO, Xiaodong WANG E-mail:liuyitong@stu2021.jnu.edu.cn;zhaoke@mail.sysu.edu.cn;wangxd33@mail.sysu.edu.cn

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摘要：

目的 系统分析1990~2021年东亚地区唇与口腔癌的疾病负担现状、变化趋势以及未来情况。 方法 本研究利用全球疾病负担2021数据库，对中国（含中国台湾省）、日本、韩国、朝鲜和蒙古的疾病负担数据，按照年龄、性别及主要危险因素进行了分层，并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来趋势。 结果 1990~2021年，东亚地区唇与口腔癌的疾病负担呈逐步上升趋势。中国台湾省的发病率、患病率、死亡率以及伤残调整生命年（DALYs）均出现最大增幅，而蒙古的死亡率和DALYs则出现下降。2021年，中国台湾省的唇与口腔癌发病率（27.50/10万人）、患病率（137.92/10万人）、死亡率（9.59/10万人）以及DALYs（292.07人年/10万人）均为最高，尤其在男性及老年人群体中尤为突出。烟草和酒精消费加剧了中国台湾省和日本的疾病负担。未来预测显示，中国（不含中国台湾省）的发病率和患病率将继续上升，而除中国台湾省和朝鲜外，其他地区的死亡率预计将有所下降。 结论 东亚地区唇与口腔癌的疾病负担持续增加，尤其在中国台湾省。为了应对这一挑战，亟需采取有效措施控制主要危险因素，推动早期筛查的普及，以及实现医疗资源的公平分配。

关键词: 唇与口腔癌, 东亚, 疾病负担, 危险因素, 时空趋势

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the trends of disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2021 and its future projections. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to conduct a comprehensive analysis of disease burden data from China (including Taiwan Province of China), Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia. The data were stratified by age, gender and major risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future trends. Results From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asian countries exhibited a steady increase. Taiwan Province of China experienced the most significant increases in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Mongolia saw a decline in both mortality and DALYs. In 2021, Taiwan Province of China reported the highest rates of lip and oral cancer incidence (27.50 per 100 000), prevalence (137.92 per 100 000), mortality (9.59 per 100 000), and DALYs (292.07 person-years per 100 000), particularly among male and elderly populations. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption significantly exacerbated the disease burden in Taiwan Province of China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lip and oral cancer in China (excluding Taiwan Province of China) will continue to rise, while their mortality rates are expected to decline in most regions, except for Taiwan Province of China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Conclusion By the year 2035, the disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia is expected to continue to increase, especially in Taiwan Province of China. To address this challenge, it is essential to implement effective measures to control major risk factors, promote early screening, and ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.

Key words: lip and oral cavity cancer, East Asia, disease burden, risk factors, spatiotemporal trends