Re-transmission risk prediction of imported Chikungunya fever in Guangdong Province using the SEIR-SEI model

doi:10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2026.07.22

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention measures against transmission of imported Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) in Guangdong Province to provide quantitative decision-making support for epidemic prevention and control. Methods Based on the imported epidemic and mosquito vector monitoring data in Guangdong Province, a human-mosquito coupling SEIR-SEI transmission dynamics model was constructed. By adjusting the environmental carrying coefficient (k), the average number of bites (θ) and the interval between onset and diagnosis ( $1 / γ p$ ), the local transmission risk and prevention and control threshold were simulated in scenarios of no intervention, single intervention (mosquito control/anti-mosquito/case isolation) and comprehensive intervention. Results A total of 65 imported cases were reported in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019. The simulation results showed limited prevention and control effect of a single intervention measure, and reducing k to below 0.001 or θ to below 0.1 was essential to block re-transmission of the epidemic; shortening $1 / γ p$ could significantly reduce the incidence peak and shorten the epidemic cycle. The effect of comprehensive intervention was significantly better than that of single intervention. The critical threshold of blocking transimission varied with the combination of parameters. For a k value no greater than 0.5, θ needed to be controlled below 0.4 and $1 / γ p$ below 3 days, or a more stringent alternative combination should be adopted. Conclusion Comprehensive intervention measures should be implemented to contain imported CHIKF epidemics in Guangdong Province. It is recommended that k be controlled below 0.5, θ below 0.4, and $1 / γ p$ within 3 days, and these thresholds can provide reference for prevention and control of similar epidemics.

Key words: imported Chikungunya fever, SEIR-SEI model, risk of re-transmission, prediction

Lishan XU, Keke LI, Milai YU, Qiuyi ZHI, Shengli AN. Re-transmission risk prediction of imported Chikungunya fever in Guangdong Province using the SEIR-SEI model[J]. Journal of Southern Medical University, 2026, 46(7): 1696-1702.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig.1 Propagation path and compartment relationship of Chikungunya fever (CHIKF).

Tab.1 Parameter description and value of SEIR-SEI model

Parameters	Description	Range of values	Value	Source
$η p$	Natural human birth rate (per day)	-	0.00889/365	^[18]
$μ p$	Natural human mortality rate (per day)	-	0.00520/365	^[18]
$η m$	Female mosquito oviposition rate (per day)		0.1	^[12]
$μ m$	Female mosquito mortality (per day)	1/52-1/9	1/30	^{[19, 20]}
$θ$	Average number of bites (times as a unit)	0-2	2	^[21]
$β m p$	The infection rate of infected mosquitoes to susceptible individuals caused by each bite	0.5-0.8	0.80	^[12]
$β p m$	The infection rate of infected individuals to susceptible mosquitoes caused by each bite	-	0.37	^[12]
$ω p$	Rate of conversion of latent patients to infected persons (per day)	1/12-1	1/7	^[1]
$ω m$	Rate of conversion of latent mosquitoes into infected mosquitoes (per day)	0.1-0.5	1/6	^[22]
$1 / γ p$	Interval between onset and diagnosis (in days)	1-7	7	^[1]
$k$	environmental carrying coefficient	0-2	2	^[16]

Tab.1 Parameter description and value of SEIR-SEI model

Parameters	Description	Range of values	Value	Source
$η p$	Natural human birth rate (per day)	-	0.00889/365	^[18]
$μ p$	Natural human mortality rate (per day)	-	0.00520/365	^[18]
$η m$	Female mosquito oviposition rate (per day)		0.1	^[12]
$μ m$	Female mosquito mortality (per day)	1/52-1/9	1/30	^{[19, 20]}
$θ$	Average number of bites (times as a unit)	0-2	2	^[21]
$β m p$	The infection rate of infected mosquitoes to susceptible individuals caused by each bite	0.5-0.8	0.80	^[12]
$β p m$	The infection rate of infected individuals to susceptible mosquitoes caused by each bite	-	0.37	^[12]
$ω p$	Rate of conversion of latent patients to infected persons (per day)	1/12-1	1/7	^[1]
$ω m$	Rate of conversion of latent mosquitoes into infected mosquitoes (per day)	0.1-0.5	1/6	^[22]
$1 / γ p$	Interval between onset and diagnosis (in days)	1-7	7	^[1]
$k$	environmental carrying coefficient	0-2	2	^[16]

Tab.2 Summary of imported CHIKF in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019

Year	Total	Source country		Discovery approach			Disposal place
Year	Total	Asia	Africa	Fever screening	Accompanying inspection	Visiting hospital	Within province	Outside province	Unknown
2008^{[3, 23, 24]}	5	5	0	3	2	-	4	1	-
2009^[25]	1	1	0	1	-	-	1	-	-
2010&2011^[5]a	5	2	3	5	-	-	-	-	5
2012^[26]	1	1	0	-	-	1	1	-	-
2013^{[27, 28]}	2	2	0	2	-	-	-	-	2
2014^[29]	1	1	0	1	-	-	-	-	1
2015^[30]	1	1	0	1	-	-	1	-
2016^[31]	1	1	0	1	-	-	-	-	1
2017^{[32, 33]}	12	12	0	11	-	1	12	-	-
2018^[33-35]	9	6	3	9	-	-	5	1	3
2019^{[33, 36-39]}	27	26	1	27	-	-	17	8	2
Total	65	58	7	61	2	2	41	10	14

Fig.2 CHIKF epidemic trend without intervention. The x-axis is the elapsed time in days since the first imported case was introduced into the community.

Fig.3 CHIKF epidemic trend under single intervention and comprehensive intervention scenarios. The x-axis is the elapsed time in days since the first imported case was introduced into the community. A is only control the environment capacity coefficient k; B is only control the average number of bites (θ); C is only control the time from symptom onset to diagnosis 1/γp . D, E and F are the effects of comprehensive intervention when k is 1, 0.5 and 0.1, respectively.

Fig.4 CHIKF epidemic trend in Community T of L Town (S District of Foshan) under different intervention scenarios. For A and B, the x‑axis is the elapsed time since the first imported case was introduced into the community. For C, the x‑axis is the elapsed time since intervention began on July 9 (local transmission already ongoing). A: Without intervention. B: Implementation of the comprehensive intervention proposed in this study upon the occurrence of the first case. C: Simulation of actual intervention measures initiated on July 9.

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