南方医科大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (05): 741-745.doi: 10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2020.05.21

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广东境外输入性COVID-19病例入境至确诊间隔时间的影响因素分析

程 琳,徐慧兰   

  • 出版日期:2020-05-20 发布日期:2020-05-20
  • 基金资助:

Interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis in imported COVID-19 cases and factors contributing to delayed diagnosis in Guangdong Province

  

  • Online:2020-05-20 Published:2020-05-20

摘要: 目的 了解广东境外输入性新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)病例入境至确诊间隔时间的分布特征及影响因素,为科学防控疫情提供参考依据。方法 收集广东省市两级卫健委官网公布的2020年3月1日~4月10日境外输入性COVID-19疫情资料,采用描述性统计学方法对入境至确诊间隔时间分布特征进行分析,采用Mann-Whitney U检验和Kruskal-Wallis H检验进行统计学差异分析,采用多因素logistic回归分析广东境外输入COVID-19病例入境至确诊间隔时间的影响因素。结果 截至4月10日,广东累计报告179例境外输入病例,入境到确诊平均间隔时间为4.21 d,中位间隔2 d,69.8%集中在1~3 d;多因素logistic回归分析显示,初次核酸检测阴性(OR=5.205,95% CI:1.100~24.640,P=0.038)、入境到检出阳性的间隔时间T>2 d(OR=85.654,95% CI:24.569~298.615,P<0.001)是境外输入性病例晚发现的风险因素。结论 初次核酸检测结果、入境到检出阳性的间隔时间是病例发现间隔时间的主要影响因素。研究提示应该对入境人员执行严格的隔离和检测措施,以准确快速识别病例,阻断境外疫情向本土扩散。

Abstract: Objective To understand the distribution patterns and the factors influencing the interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis in imported COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province to provide evidence for formulating and implementing effective control measures. Methods We collected the data of imported COVID-19 cases from March 1st to April 10th, 2020 published on the official websites of Health Commission of Guangdong Province and local government of the cities in Guangdong Province for epidemiological analysis. Descriptive statistical methods were used to analyze the distribution patterns of the interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis of the imported cases, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the interval. Results A total of 179 imported cases were reported in Guangdong by April 10th, 2020. The average interval between entry of mainland China and diagnosis was 4.21 days with a median of 2 days. The interval was between 1 and 3 days in 69.8% of the cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a negative result of the initial nucleic acid test (OR=5.205, 95% CI: 1.100-24.640, P=0.038) and interval between entry of mainland China and a positive diagnosis >2 days (OR=85.654, 95%CI: 24.569-298.615, P<0.001) were risk factors for the finding delay. Conclusion The results of initial nucleic acid detection and the interval between entry of mainland China and a positive diagnosis of COVID-19 are the major contributing factors of delayed case detection. This finding suggests that strict quarantine and detection measures should be carried out for the personnel entering China to accurately and quickly identify the cases.