Journal of Southern Medical University ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (01): 88-.
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Abstract: Objective To compare the predictive value of 5 prognostic models (Child-Pugh scoring, Clichy prognostic index [PI],New Clichy PI, Rotterdam BCS index, and BCS-TIPS PI) for Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) in China. Methods The clinical dataof 123 patients with BCS were retrospectively analyzed, among whom 99 survived and 24 died. The indices of the 5 prognosticmodels were respectively calculated, and each index was compared by F-test between the survival and death groups. The areaunder curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of the models were computed and analyzed by receiver-operator characteristic(ROC) curve. Results The indices of Child-Pugh, Clichy, New Clichy and Rotterdam BCS Index models in the death group(8.792±2.0, 5.924±0.783, 5.695±1.81, and 0.615±1.133, respectively) were significantly higher than those in the survival group(7.141 ± 1.443, 5.221 ± 0.834, 3.981 ± 1.033, and -0.148 ± 0.896, respectively, P<0.01), and only BCS-TIPS model had no significantdifference between the two groups (P>0.05). The AUC of the 5 indices were 0.738, 0.720, 0.776, 0.721, and 0.502, with Youdenindices of 0.370, 0.410, 0.439, 0.473, and 0.051, respectively. Conclusion Child-Pugh scoring, Clichy PI, New Clichy PI, andRotterdam BCS Index models can distinguish survival from death in BCS patients in China. New Clichy PI has the highestpredictive value and is suitable for use in China, whereas the other models have relatively low predictive values, among whichBCS-TIPS model is not advisable. Meanwhile effort should be made to establish a prognostic model for BCS in China.
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https://www.j-smu.com/EN/Y2014/V34/I01/88