南方医科大学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 1764-1778.doi: 10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2026.08.05

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重症蛛网膜下腔出血患者入院早期平均动脉压变异性与院内死亡风险的U形关系:基于MIMIC-IV和eICU-CRD数据库

向海艳1,2(), 陈秀娟3, 王来友1,2, 赖伟华1,2()   

  1. 1.华南理工大学医学院,广东 广州 510006;
    2.南方医科大学附属广东省人民医院(广东省医学科学院) 临床药学科
    3.南方医科大学附属广东省人民医院(广东省医学科学院) 医学大数据中心,广东 广州 510080
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-24 出版日期:2026-08-20 发布日期:2026-08-01
  • 通讯作者: 赖伟华 E-mail:x3143026490@outlook.com;laiweihuax@163.com
  • 作者简介:向海艳,在读硕士研究生,E-mail: x3143026490@outlook.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(82274120);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2023A1515010405);广东省人民医院引进高层次全职人才科研经费(KY012021198);广东省人民医院院内项目(2023-08)

Early mean arterial pressure variability and in-hospital mortality from severe subarachnoid hemorrhage: a U-shaped association based on MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD data

Haiyan XIANG1,2(), Xiujuan CHEN3, Laiyou WANG1,2, Weihua LAI1,2()   

  1. 1.School of Medicine, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
    2.Department of Clinical Pharmacy,Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510080, China
    3.Medical Big Data Center, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510080, China
  • Received:2025-12-24 Online:2026-08-20 Published:2026-08-01
  • Contact: Weihua LAI E-mail:x3143026490@outlook.com;laiweihuax@163.com
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(82274120)

摘要:

目的 探讨非创伤性蛛网膜下腔出血(NSAH)患者入院早期平均动脉压变异性(MBPV)与院内死亡的关联。 方法 基于重症监护医学信息数据库Ⅳ版(MIMIC-Ⅳ)与电子重症监护病房协作研究数据库(eICU-CRD),纳入1345~1820例NSAH患者。提取入院24、48、72 h平均动脉压(MBP)数据,计算标准差(SD)、平均真实变异性(ARV)、极差(Range)、连续变异(SV)作为MBPV指标。采用限制性立方样条(RCS)结合Cox回归分析非线性关系,分段回归确定风险拐点;对违反比例风险假设的指标进行时依Cox回归;并通过排除72 h内手术者、药物信息缺失者两项敏感性分析验证结果稳健性。 结果 各时间窗MBPV均与院内死亡呈显著U型非线性关联(均P<0.05),过低或过高波动均升高死亡风险,其中入院24 h关联最强、稳定性最优。时依分析显示,ARV、SV的风险效应在入院4~7 d后更显著,SD、Range的风险效应则主要集中于入院前14 d。综合稳定性分析显示,24 h和72 h的MBPV为关联最稳健的指标。两项敏感性分析结果与主分析一致。 结论 NSAH患者早期MBPV与院内死亡呈U型关联,中等波动提示更佳预后;24 h的MBPV可作为早期血压监测的首选指标。

关键词: 非创伤性蛛网膜下腔出血, 院内死亡, 平均动脉压变异性, ICU患者, 非线性

Abstract:

Objective To explore the association between mean arterial pressure variability (MBPV) and in-hospital mortality in patients with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (NSAH). Methods This study was conducted using the data of NSAH patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database and the eICU-CRD, with the final sample size ranging from 1345 to 1820 subjects across different MBPV indicators. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) data within 24, 48, and 72 h after admission were extracted, and the standard deviation (SD), average real variability (ARV), range, and successive variability (SV) of MBPV were calculated. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) combined with Cox regression analysis was adopted to evaluate the nonlinear correlation and determine the risk inflection point using piecewise regression. Time-dependent Cox regression was performed only for variables violating the proportional hazards assumption. Two sensitivity analyses were conducted (excluding patients with surgery within 72 h of admission and those with missing data of medication) to validate the robustness of the results. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Results MBPV at all time windows showed a U-shaped nonlinear association with in-hospital mortality of the patients (all P<0.05), and the strongest association was found at 24 h. The inflection point of MBP SD was 8.9, and either excessively low or high fluctuation increased the mortality risk. Time-dependent analysis showed that ARV and SV of MBPV became more hazardous after 4-7 days, while its SD and range were risky mainly within the first 14 days. Both sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the main results. Conclusion Early MBPV presents a U-shaped association with in-hospital mortality from NSAH, and moderate fluctuation predicts better prognosis. MBP SDs within 24 and 72 h are the most robust indicators, and the former can serve as the preferred indicator for early blood pressure monitoring.

Key words: non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage, in-hospital mortality, mean arterial pressure variability, ICU patients, nonlinearity